THE INITIAL results from a major Isle of Man political survey in the run up to the House of Keys General Election have been released today.
With the survey more than half way through, the organisers - ‘Manx People Power’ - have found worries over the economy top of the list of the key issues facing the Manx public prior to September's election.
The survey will eventually cover questions posed to more than 1,000 voters, asking about the choice of Chief Minister, important election issues and views on how the government has performed in the last five years.
Alan Cooper, Executive Partner at HPI Research, the leading independent UK research company conducting the survey, said, “We will be publishing the full survey results from mid-August, but responses from the first 500 interviews give a broad indication of the final outcome. However, the final percentages may differ slightly when the survey is completed.”
Hugh Davidson, who commissioned and funded this research, said, “We thought it would be useful to provide some preliminary results, to give politicians a picture of how people are feeling about these issues, some weeks ahead of the General Election.
“The public’s response to the survey has been excellent. A very high 91% said they thought it was important ‘for MHKs and Government to be made aware of the public’s feelings ... through public opinion surveys of this kind’.
“The researchers were impressed by the knowledge of those interviewed, and the quality of responses, with few ‘don’t know’ answers, except in relation to choice of Chief Minister.”
People were asked who they would vote for as Chief Minister, from eight possible MHKs, and any others that they could suggest themselves. Results are not clear-cut so far, and ‘Manx People Power’ will, therefore, delay publication until full results are available.
Three MHKs were ahead but each only selected by 11% to 15% of people, with no clear favourite to date. As many as 20% of those interviewed said, ‘don’t know’, suggesting that all candidates will benefit from becoming better known.
However, the public had very clear-cut views on two important related questions with 89% thinking prospective MHKs intending to stand for election as Chief Minister, should declare this publicly in the run up to the General Election. And 92% said Chief Minister candidates should be required to take part in public debates, so that people can become aware of their policies.
These two findings are decisive, and unlikely to change significantly when the full 1050 interviews are completed. “Politicians and the media now have the opportunity to take action on this overwhelming weight of public opinion,” said the survey organisers.
Managing the economy, the VAT agreement, and health were the three most important issues over the next five years, as follows:
Managing the economy 42%; VAT agreement 31%; health 24%; education 15%; relations with UK government 15%; efficiency of government spending 12%; immigration 12%.
The researchers asked people to rank the government’s performance over the past five years, on a 7-point scale, ranging from ‘extremely good’ to ‘extremely poor’. Overall, the ranking was slightly above average, with 32% of answers in the ‘good’ box, 24% ‘poor’, 43% average’ and 1% ‘don’t know’.
However, only 9% gave the top two rankings of ‘extremely good’ and ‘very good’. People were then asked to rank Government performance on the issues they had identified as most important for the future. On the seven top issues, the government did best on education and health, least well on the VAT Agreement, and efficiency of government spending.
Rating of Government Performance on 7 Top political issues:
Education +69%; Health +54%; Managing the Economy +15%; Relations with UK Government +11%; Efficiency of Government spending -17%; Negotiation of VAT Agreement -30%.
‘Manx People Power’ will be publishing the full answers to the 39 questions in the survey, with breakdowns by age, gender, geographical area, and Manx born/ not Manx born, between mid August and mid September.
