THE FIRST major political survey to be undertaken in the Isle of Man is to be conducted in the next month in the run up to the House of Keys General Election.
Around 1,000 voters will be interviewed during the next few weeks with the results released in mid August. Individual responses will be treated in the strictest confidence.
The project is being personally funded by Professor Hugh Davidson, the international businessman and marketing expert who lives on the Island.
His ‘Manx People Power’ research, is designed to ask a number of important questions which require answers to which House of Keys voters will have access before the election.
The list of questions includes the following:-
Who is the Manx people's first choice for next Chief Minister? Should candidates announce their intention to stand some weeks ahead of the General Election, and participate in public debates, as in the UK and USA? How should he/she be selected? How do Manx people rate government performance in the past five years overall, and by main activity area? How would Manx people vote if they lived in the UK? What are the most important future issues facing the IOM? Should there be a Manx referendum on the new VAT agreement, following Iceland's example?
He said, "With a General Election only three months away, it seems important for people to have the opportunity to express their views in an authoritative way, and for politicians to listen to their voice.
Democracy in the Island does not work as well as it should, and this government has not been notable for its transparency. I'll be happy if the research helps stimulate more discussion and debate, and creates greater focus on national issues. I'm just one of over 60,000 members of the public who can vote, and I look forward to hearing what others think."
Three leading research UK companies were approached, and two short listed and HPI Research was selected. It is the largest full service independent research company in the UK, and based in London, but did extensive research in 2005 on how best to promote the Isle of Man.
Alan Cooper will lead the ‘Manx People Power’ research. He is a partner in HPI, and a quantitative researcher, with decades of experience working with blue chip clients. Alan lives on the Island, and is a TT and Manx Grand Prix race marshal.
He said, "HPI Research is delighted to have won this important project, which will break new ground for the Isle of Man. We will be using a large sample of 1050 adults living on the Island.
“This will be carefully selected to exactly represent the profile of the population by Manx born/not Manx born, age, gender, social grade, and geographical area (north, south, east and west). Most UK polling studies use a representative sample of around 1000 people, to reflect the views of nearly 50 million adults.
“In that context, the Manx sample size is massive, equivalent to interviewing almost 800,000 people in the UK. We could have done a very good job here with a representative sample of 500, but Hugh Davidson decided to double this number, for maximum reliability."
Will the research be conducted objectively? Hugh Davidson says "yes", since he has no political ambitions, neither does he run a business on the Isle of Man.
Alan Cooper, who designed the questionnaire, stresses that the interviews will be conducted according to the Market Research Society code of conduct, with replies treated in strictest confidence. A copy of the research brief and the questionnaire will be posted on the internet.
Hugh Davidson added, "People may wonder how we decided on the topic areas for questions. These were selected following individual discussions with knowledgeable people in the Manx media.
“We had to omit some interesting questions, since we were limited to a 20 minute telephone interview. We will shortly be starting a website, where we will post information, and invite comment. The domain name ‘Manx People Power’ has been registered.”
Following a pilot run, interviews have now started, and results will be published before the election, in four or five separate tranches from mid August to mid September.
