Anne Craine's first budget speech as the Isle of Man's treasury minister this morning (Tuesday) is widely expected to be the toughest in the modern era.

A massive cut in VAT receipts means over ?100 million has had to be slimmed from the cash available for her to allocate.

So what are the prospects?

Manx Radio's business editor John Moss gives a personal assessment of the prospects:

If Mrs Craine sticks by the traditional Manx formula, it will be a little here and a little there rather than any large cuts.

Income tax is an obvious money earner, but it went up twelve months ago and it's election year - two points that won't have been lost on the Treasury.

Departments have already been issued with instructions to lose weight - ten per cent cuts are required.

That process has started and is already causing feathers to be ruffled.

But overall, the finance industry will be looking nervously at EcoFin and its meeting in just two days to say yeh, or more likely nay, to the 'Attribution Regime' (ARI) element in the Zero-ten tax system, a blending of personal and busines tax 'which doesn't gell', they will be told by a European tax committee.

Last year I suggested that was the toughest budget to date. It was, but this one will be an even rougher ride.

The government's job will be to spread the pain and when the dust has settled to emerge fiscally bruised, perhaps, but still with a confident air. On that rests such benchmarks as our 'triple A' rating, a key indicator to the watching world that the Manx are still very much their own masters.

Mrs Craine's budget speech, and the entire budget debate, will be broadcast live on Manx Radio's AM 1368 frequency, from just after 10.30am today. The budget will be followed by the rest of the February sitting of Tynwald, with question time expected at 10.30am tomorrow.

John Moss and Roger Watterson and a panel of guests will assess the measures contained in the 2011 Isle of Man budget in the Baker Tilly Budget Special, on AM 1368 from 1pm to 2pm today.