IT LOOKS like the Isle of Man could have a White Christmas, following last weekend’s long-range forecast. Officially, just one snowflake qualifies as a “White Christmas”.
Weather forecasters across the UK are saying that there will be another very cold spell of weather towards the end of this week and the chances of Christmas Day in the Isle of Man having some snow are higher than for many years.
The Isle of Man’s last White Christmas was in 2004. The definition of an “official” Manx White Christmas is that snow falls in any measurable quantity (i.e. one single snowflake) at any time during the 24 hours of December 25th. But the snow has to fall at Ronaldsway Airport to officially qualify as a Manx White Christmas. In 2004 only a few flakes of snow were recorded but it was sufficient to qualify as an official White Christmas.
“If Christmas Day was this coming weekend, then the chances of snow falling are definitely very high,” said a Ronaldsway Met Office spokesman. “But with Christmas being almost two weeks away then it’s not easy to predict, especially with the Isle of Man’s notoriously unpredictable weather.”
Most UK forecasts suggest that the cold weather will hold on through to Christmas, but others predict the Isle of Man may just miss out. Scotland, particularly in the north, is the most likely area of Britain to find snow on the doorstep on Christmas morning.
The UK Met Office won't be drawn yet on the odds of a white Christmas but independent analyst Positive Weather Solutions has now doubled its estimated chance of snow falling on Christmas Day. It said Scotland and the North-East of England have a 59% probability; the East Coast 55%, with the rest of the North, mid-Wales and the Midlands at 32%.
The definition of an official white Christmas used most widely, notably by those placing and taking bets, is for a single snow flake (perhaps amongst a shower of rain and snow mixed) to be observed falling in the 24 hours of 25 December.
The last official white Christmas in the UK was in 2009, when snow was widespread across Northern Ireland, Scotland, parts of Wales, the Midlands, north-east and far south-west England. There was also snow on high ground on the Isle of Man on Christmas Day 2009, but none fell at Ronaldsway.
The interest in a snowy Christmas has its origins in the colder climate of the period 1550–1850 when Britain was in the grip of a ‘Little Ice Age’. Winters were particularly persistent and severe — 1813-14 was the last winter that a ‘frost fair’ was held on the River Thames in London.
On December 12th William Hill was facing a possible seven figures payout if one flake of snow falls in all the cities they are betting on, over the 24 hour period of Christmas Day. Aberdeen is the favourite at 11/4, Newcastle has been cut from 6/1 to 3/1, whilst London is 3/1 from 6/1. Manchester is 11/2.
There are a number of websites (all odds at 13-10-12) making predictions for a White Christmas in the Isle of Man (or somewhere nearby!). All the odds are subject to change and are being altered daily.
Metcheck.com - 30%
Positive Weather Solutions 32%
William Hill 11/2 (based on Manchester)
William Hill 4/1 (based on Belfast)
Skybet 5/4 (Belfast)
Betfair 171/100 (Belfast)
Betfair 371/100 (Liverpool)
PaddyPower 5/2 (Belfast)
PaddyPower 11/4 (Dublin)
Systemlays 5/1 (Dublin)
Systemlays 7/2 (Belfast)
Betfred 3/1 (Belfast)
Betfred 7/2 (Liverpool)
Bet365 3/1 (Belfast)
Boylesports 3/1 (Belfast)
StanJames 11/4 (Manchester)
* All betting odds are as shown on websites on 13-12-10 and are subject to change.
